The World Cup Arrived, but Seattle Airbnb Crashed? The Market Taught Me a Harsh Lesson!

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Before this year's World Cup began, my assessment was almost identical to that of many Seattle hosts:

Airbnb should see a surge in bookings.

Many people thought this year's revenue could reach 1.5 times last year's, or even twice as much. After all, the World Cup is one of the world's most closely watched sporting events, and Seattle was a host city. Hotels, short-term rentals and tourism should all have seen substantial growth.

But the actual result was the complete opposite of what we had expected.

The market did not boom across the board; some properties even performed worse than during the same period last year.

Today, then, I want to take a serious look back: why did a mega-event like the World Cup fail to deliver the expected benefits to Seattle's short-term rental market?

More importantly, what lessons did the market teach me this time?

1. This was not a problem affecting a few hosts: the whole market fell short of expectations

This impression did not come solely from our own properties.

According to KUOW's reporting, occupancy at Seattle's State Hotel this June declined by approximately 7% compared with the same period last year.

An American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) survey also showed that in World Cup host cities including Seattle, Boston, Philadelphia and San Francisco, nearly 80% of hotel operators surveyed said bookings during the World Cup were coming in more slowly than expected—even more slowly than in a normal summer.

There is another particularly telling example.

KOMO reported on the Silver Cloud Hotel near Lumen Field. Given its location, it should have been among the hotels best positioned to benefit directly from the World Cup.

Yet it did not sell out on any of the match days during Seattle's six games.

For one night, room prices initially exceeded US$1,200, before eventually falling as low as US$309.

This shows that the problem was not one host's pricing mistake, or one poorly operated Airbnb.

The real problem was this:

A substantial gap emerged between the entire market's expectations of World Cup accommodation demand and the demand that actually materialized.

2. I was also someone the market taught a lesson

I am not writing this article to criticize hosts' earlier optimism with the benefit of hindsight.

I was one of the people taught a lesson by the market this time, too.

Before the World Cup began, I also thought that for such a major event, charging twice or three times the usual rate during matches—or even more—would hardly be excessive.

In practice, some of our properties were indeed fortunate enough to rent at high prices.

But frankly, more than half could not secure bookings at the high prices we had originally envisioned.

Around April, we began noticing that the market's pace was not right.

It was not that there were no bookings at all, but booking growth—the pickup rate—was nowhere near the level we would expect in a World Cup host city.

So, beginning in April, we gradually lowered prices.

Looking back now, that decision was extremely important.

In short-term rental management, it is impossible to predict the market accurately every time.

What really matters is not that you must never make an incorrect assessment, but this:

When the market diverges from expectations, can you acknowledge your mistake faster than others and adjust in time?

3. Why did Seattle's World Cup accommodation market fall short of expectations?

After reviewing what happened, I believe there were three main reasons.

Reason 1: The World Cup created pockets of demand, not continuous demand

Many hosts, myself included, initially imagined this:

With the World Cup coming, all of June and July would be busy.

But that is not what happened.

World Cup demand did not form one continuous stretch; it was concentrated in pockets around a small number of match days.

On some important match days, accommodation demand did increase noticeably.

Demand from local and visiting fans was generally stronger around US team matches in particular.

But the gaps between two matches were not automatically filled by World Cup demand.

This is critical for Airbnb.

If hosts assume all of June should be sold at World Cup prices, they may miss out on guests who would otherwise visit Seattle for a normal summer vacation.

For example, a family originally plans a summer trip to Seattle, but they are not coming for the World Cup.

When they discover higher hotel prices, higher Airbnb prices and more expensive flights this year, they may postpone their trip or choose a different destination altogether.

So the World Cup's effect on the market may not be a simple increase in demand.

It may be closer to this:

Some demand from soccer fans was added, while some ordinary summer visitors were displaced.

The resulting net increase was therefore not nearly as large as everyone had imagined.

Reason 2: Initial prices were pushed too high, which in turn suppressed demand

This time, Airbnb hosts were not the only ones whose expectations were too high.

Hotels, travel platforms and World Cup-related accommodation arrangements all helped establish a very strong early expectation:

Accommodation in Seattle during the World Cup would inevitably be scarce and very expensive.

But once prices rise far enough, they begin suppressing actual demand.

The cost of attending a World Cup match goes far beyond a match ticket.

Travelers also have to pay for:

International or domestic flights;

Hotel or short-term rental accommodation;

Local transportation;

Food and drink;

Match tickets;

Visa and entry arrangements;

The uncertainty of changes to travel plans.

Together, these expenses make traveling to the United States for the World Cup very costly.

Ultimately, the people both willing and able to bear that cost may mainly be the most dedicated fans and a small group of travelers with larger budgets.

That does not mean every hotel and Airbnb in the city will automatically fill up.

There is also an easily overlooked effect.

Because people had long assumed Seattle would be expensive and crowded during the World Cup, some visitors who originally planned to come for summer vacation actively avoided that period.

They might think:

“The World Cup is this year, so prices will definitely be too high. Let's go another time.”

The market's problem was therefore not only that fewer people came to watch soccer than expected.

Some ordinary summer visitors may also have been deterred by the early expectation of excessively high prices.

Reason 3: Not every World Cup match creates the same accommodation demand

This is a very practical issue, but one that is easily overlooked.

Not every World Cup match has the same ability to drive the accommodation market.

If Seattle had hosted matches involving globally popular teams such as Argentina, France or Brazil, international fans' willingness to travel and accommodation demand would clearly have been stronger.

But this time, the matches that did the most to generate demand from local and visiting fans in Seattle were mainly those involving the US team.

Other matches of course had spectators and attracted attention, too.

But some teams and matchups may not have enough global drawing power to persuade large numbers of visitors to fly specifically to Seattle and stay for several nights.

One important lesson I learned this time was therefore:

We cannot see the words “World Cup” and assume every match represents the same accommodation demand.

What we really need to analyze is:

Which specific match it is;

Which two teams are playing;

What day the match is scheduled for;

Whether fans will make a special trip to attend;

How many nights travelers will stay on average;

Whether the match can connect with a weekend or other travel plans.

A busy stadium, bar or restaurant does not mean every Airbnb will also be busy.

Those two things cannot simply be treated as equivalent.

4. My two biggest reflections this time

Reflection 1: When you realize the market is wrong, you have to move faster than others

Starting with relatively high World Cup prices was not inherently wrong.

Major events are uncertain, and naturally hosts want to pursue higher returns first.

What is truly dangerous is this:

Refusing to adjust after the market has already sent negative signals.

Many hosts keep telling themselves:

“Let's wait a little longer.”

“The World Cup is such a huge event. Someone will surely book.”

“Prices may rise as the matches get closer.”

But if hotels have already started cutting prices, nearby Airbnbs are also cutting prices, and the market's overall booking pace remains below expectations, continuing to wait can leave you in a very difficult position.

After noticing that the pickup rate was wrong in April, we began gradually lowering prices.

I believe that move helped us avoid more severe vacancies.

My biggest takeaway this time is:

The core of short-term rental operations is not always predicting correctly; it is correcting quickly when your prediction is wrong.

We manage a relatively large number of properties, so it is easier for us to see market changes in aggregate data.

If just one or two properties have no bookings, there may be a problem with those particular properties.

But if properties in different areas and of different types all experience similar booking slowdowns, it suggests an overall market issue rather than a problem with an individual listing.

Reflection 2: Cancellation policies are also part of revenue management

During the World Cup, the cancellation rate we observed was noticeably higher than normal.

I think there may have been two main reasons.

First, some travelers booked match tickets and accommodation in advance but ultimately could not travel because of visas, flights, entry arrangements or other changes to their plans.

Second, market prices kept falling.

Some guests booked early at higher prices, then found cheaper listings for the same period, canceled their original reservations and booked again.

Only after seeing the cancellation rate rise noticeably did we begin reconsidering this question:

During a special period with major price fluctuations such as the World Cup, should cancellation policies also be included in the revenue management system?

We now offer guests another option:

Guests who choose a non-refundable rate—one that cannot be canceled or refunded—can receive an additional 5% discount.

For guests, this means booking at a lower price.

For hosts, it locks in some reservations and reduces the risk of cancellations caused by falling market prices.

This was another very practical lesson from the experience:

Price is not the only revenue management tool.

Cancellation policies, early booking discounts, last-minute discounts, minimum stays, check-in date restrictions and non-refundable rates should all form part of an overall revenue strategy.

5. A greater concern than the World Cup's disappointing performance is the market after September

The World Cup combined with summer vacation should have been one of Seattle's strongest periods of accommodation demand all year.

If even the World Cup and summer peak season fell short of our original expectations, the off-season after September is an even greater concern.

Seattle's short-term rental demand generally starts declining gradually in September.

Colder weather, fewer family trips and changes in business and leisure demand all move the market into a more difficult phase.

If the busiest period was less busy than expected, how should off-season properties maintain occupancy and cash flow?

One direction we are now very clear about internally is investing more in the mid-term rental market.

That means furnished rentals lasting around three, five or six months.

6. Mid-term rentals are not merely a fallback when short-term rentals stop working

In the past, some hosts thought:

You only switch to mid-term rentals if short-term rentals are not doing well.

But the market's performance during this World Cup has made me more certain:

Mid-term rentals are not a fallback for short-term rentals; they are an important strategy for hosts to manage market volatility.

Short-term rentals have the advantage of a higher potential revenue ceiling.

During peak seasons, holidays and major events, when the market performs well, hosts really do have the opportunity to earn more.

But short-term rentals are also highly volatile.

They are affected by many factors:

Seasonal changes;

Major events;

Flights and airfares;

Visa and entry policies;

Hotel prices;

Platform rules;

Market supply;

Last-minute cancellations;

Consumers' confidence in traveling.

By comparison, mid-term rental returns may not reach the heights of peak-season short-term rentals, but they are more stable overall.

For mid-to-high-end properties in particular, or properties that are not selling and whose owners do not want prolonged vacancies, furnished rentals of three to six months may be well worth considering.

7. A mature property operation cannot depend solely on Airbnb

The lesson this year's World Cup taught us was not simply that a world-class event was less busy than we had imagined.

More importantly, it reaffirmed something for us:

A mature property operations system cannot rely solely on Airbnb short-term rentals.

Hosts need both short-term rental operating capabilities and channels for acquiring mid-term guests.

They need to capture higher returns in peak season while also controlling vacancy and cash flow risks in the off-season.

They need to capture the upside of a rising market and have ways to cover the downside of a declining one.

A truly stable property operation does not bet everything on one platform or one major event.

It adjusts flexibly among short-term, short-to-mid-term and mid-term rentals according to the property's characteristics, market cycle and changes in guest segments.

This may be the most valuable lesson the World Cup has given us.

If this topic interests you, you are welcome to join our WeChat group and discuss it with us!

If you own a mid-to-high-end property in Seattle that has been listed for sale without finding a buyer, or are considering converting it to a mid-term or short-to-mid-term rental, please contact us.

Next, we will develop our mid-term guest acquisition channels more systematically and continue growing this business as a separate direction.

If you are a real estate agent with clients who own similar properties, we would also welcome a discussion about opportunities to work together.

If you:

Hope to increase rental income through short-term rentals;

Cannot spare a great deal of time to handle the small details;

Occasionally need to use the home yourself, making it unsuitable to empty out the furniture for a long-term rental;

Then:

Snowball Rentals’ management team is your best choice.

From pre-launch vacation-rental styling, big-data analysis and online marketing to tenant screening, dynamic pricing, customer service and sales, cleaning and repairs, Snowball Rentals provides everything as one complete service for your home.

This Week’s Booking Results

Through long-standing relationships with insurers, assignment companies and technology companies, Snowball Rentals rents homes for medium- and long-term durations at short-term rates, then gives owners a rebate of 5% in management fees to maximize their income.

Seattle's short-term rental market remains sluggish in the second half of 2026. How have your results been?

Short-term rentals in peak season; mid-term rentals in low season.

Looking back at the large bookings received recently, this strategy has achieved some results, giving us confidence even during the cold winter!

The detached house below, located in Renton, has an estimated long-term monthly rent of approximately $5380, which can be looked up on Zillow.

With the owner’s trust and support, we carefully furnished the home and immediately began short-term rental operations. Fortunately, because the home’s condition and location are both good, short- and mid-term bookings have continued to come in.

As shown in the booking screenshot below, this house recently received a large booking:

June 27 to July 27, a total of 30 nights, with an average monthly rent of $17320 after conversion.

In summary, with Snowball Rentals operating this property, its monthly rental revenue increased from $5380 to $17320, an increase of more than twice the original amount.

For homeowners, combining short- and mid-term rentals in this way can earn more in peak season and help them get through low season smoothly. Even if the low-season rental figures look less dramatic, they still outperform long-term rentals and give homeowners a strong sense of financial security.

More importantly, the owner does not have to worry about maintenance or cleaning. When something needs to be discussed with guests, we also help with communication and oversight.

Here, we again thank the owner for placing trust in the Snowball Rentals team!

After nearly two years of Airbnb’s downturn, we at Snowball Rentals hope to help owners make steady progress in low season, navigate the challenges safely and lay a better foundation for next year’s peak season.

Once again, heartfelt thanks to our homeowners for their trust and support. Whether the market is strong or weak, Snowball Rentals will stand with you and look for ways to increase your income!

Some homeowners will surely ask the hard question: was a large booking like this just a stroke of luck? What if the home does not rent? A long-term rental is more stable—even earning less is better than earning nothing!

Our answer is: the outcome depends on what we do.

Vacation-Rental Styling

Competition on Airbnb is becoming increasingly intense. The days of piecing together secondhand furniture, taking phone photos and earning easy money on Airbnb are over. Airbnb hosts have moved toward professional operations.

Careful design and furnishing before launch, followed by professional short-term rental operations, will be the only choice for a rental that continues to generate high income.

Here is another of Snowball Rentals’ core services: vacation-rental styling!

Here is what the detached home described above looks like after our careful furnishing:

When choosing a short-term rental on Airbnb, would this home’s appearance attract you?

If you would also like to make your home more attractive and earn more rent, please contact us at any time!

This Week’s Short Videos

We regularly update short videos every week.

The content you need is all here.

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Snowball Rentals

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We also share practical vacation-rental styling plans and creative ideas to help you achieve more with less spending and keep rental income growing!

Xiao An’s Vacation-Rental Styling

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Snowball Rentals Management

1. Full service — We provide pre-launch rental design, furniture procurement, furnishing, professional photography, online marketing, copywriting, tenant service and sales, cleaning, supply purchasing and property repairs. You only need to be a hands-off owner; we handle the rest.

2. Multi-platform promotion — We promote the home on Airbnb, VRBO, HomeAway and other mainstream platforms for maximum exposure.

3. Dynamic pricing — Using big data, we adjust prices every day according to seasonal demand, holidays, last-minute vacancy offers, weekends and local activities, maximizing the owner’s income.

4. Income-improvement SOP — We follow 44 secrets for maximizing short-term rental income, optimizing each property’s online marketing, on-site operations and other aspects to work toward maximum income.

5. Flexible owner stays — Owners can flexibly choose when to stay themselves. This is especially suitable for owners with multiple residences around the world.

6. Terminate at any time — Management does not require an annual commitment. The owner can end the agreement with one month’s advance notice.

7. Corporate housing — In addition to nightly rentals, we work with insurers and assignment companies to provide executives with hotel-style managed accommodation for stays longer than 30 days.

8. Transparent fees — For rentals longer than 30 days, we charge 15% of accommodation revenue. For nightly rentals under 30 days, we charge 20% of accommodation revenue.

Author’s tip: Personal views, for reference only.